2022年12月4日20:00-21:30，国际金融论坛学术委员、中央财经大学金融学院教授、国际金融研究中心主任张礼卿应邀出席了“国际金融论坛2022年全球年会特别对话——F20峰会”。本次峰会的主题是“国际金融体系的分裂与重构”。会议由国际货币基金组织前秘书长林建海先生主持，IMF前第一副总裁约翰·利普斯基、国际清算银行(BIS)前总裁吉耶尔莫·奥特兹、纽约大学斯特恩商学院金融学教授理查德·伯纳、中央财经大学国际金融研究中心主任张礼卿教授、巴西前财长若阿金·列维、国际清算银行亚太区前首席代表希德哈斯·提瓦力先后做了发言，并展开了热烈讨论。

张礼卿教授着重阐述了全球货币体系多元化发展的前景，对美元、欧元和人民币等货币国际地位的演变趋势进行了展望。在讨论环节，对IMF的改革以及增强对低收入国家的危机救助能力等发表了看法。（发言全文、视频和相关报道附后）

Thank you Jianhai. Very happy to participate in the annual meeting this year and extremely honored to join such a distinguished panel. For responding your questions, I would like to make the following points.

First, due to the global reshaping and significant changes inside and outside the states, I assume everyone would agree with that the role of the US dollar as the key global reserve currency has been declining over the past decades. In terms of the share in global reserve currency system, the dollar is currently only around 59%, significantly lower than the level 10 years ago.

Looking forward, most likely the role of US dollar will continue to decline though we don’t know how far it will go and how long it will take. For some reasons, US dollar will remain its dominant role in the coming years even decades. (1) US is still and continue to be the largest economy in the world in the coming years; (2) its financial market, especially the treasury bill market is and will continue to be the largest, highly liquid and very much opened one in the world; (3) its financial regulation framework is still and will continue to be among the most sophisticated ones in the world; (4) and US is still playing a leading role in the global geopolitical regime though it is likely going to decline in the future.

However, we can see more reasons for the declining of the role of US dollar. (1) its share in world economy is going to be declining in the future unavoidably while China and other emerging markets’ share are rising; (2) Due to the extreme QE monetary policies after the outbreak of co-vid 19, US is suffering a high inflation though Fed has been trying to get it back to normal level, i.e. 2%. However, the hike of the fed rate has triggered the US dollar to appreciate significantly since the April of this year. It may continue and eventually create a historical height of current account deficits together with enormous fiscal deficits. The twin deficits may become the main source of a weak dollar in the coming years or the second period of the global financial cycle and eventually hurt the credibility of US dollar. (3) It is unclear that whether the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Ukraine war, will hurt the credibility of US dollar just like what happened in the March of this year. But it will be very likely if US continued to take US dollar as a weapon in such circumstances. (4) Finally, US dollar as a reserve currency is going to face with more competition from other currencies, not just Euro and RMB, but also other non-traditional reserve currencies, and even SDRs.

For other currencies, it is almost for sure that Euro and RMB will be the main competitors to the US dollar. The shares in global reserve currencies for both of them are going to be rising in the future. However, it is very important for EU and China to provide more fundamental supports for their currencies, including maintaining a dynamic economic growth, playing more important role in international trade and finance, and making their economic, financial and institutional environment more credible. Especially, for EU, it is important to make its labor market more flexible and more closed corporation in the fiscal policy and banking regulation among member countries. For China, it is extremely necessary to deepen its market oriented economic reform, accelerate its financial opening and build up a more friendly business and investment environment.

Certainly, in addition to Chinese yuan, we will see more other non-traditional reserve currencies to join the global reserve currency family. They are Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Singapore Yuan, Korea Won and other currencies not separately identified in the COFER survey. Based on Barry Eichengreen’s latest research, during 2010-2020, while the share of US dollar declined about 10 percent points, from 70% to 60% roughly, RMB’s share increases only by a quarter (2.5%) and other nontraditional reserve currencies’ share increases by three quarters (7.5%). The increasing shares of other non-traditional currencies may simply reflect central banks’ need of portfolio diversification. Such a trend may continue of course.

Finally, SDRs may play a more important role in the global reserve system although it is not a sovereign currency. After significant increase of the allocations in 2009 and 2021, the share of SDRs has reached up to about 8% in the global reserve system. It is certainly possible that we will see the share of SDRs continue to increase in the future.

3.10 IFF特别对话—— F20峰会：国际金融体系分裂与重构（由IFF与布雷顿森林体系委员会联合举办） (mudu.tv)

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